Flowood, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

860
FXUS64 KJAN 250149 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
849 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Though a few pesky cells remain, convection has diminished
considerably in coverage over the past hour with the loss of
daytime instability and should continue to do so overnight. The
near term forecast had this mostly accounted for, but we`ll make
some tweaks to PoPs to better reflect still-ongoing activity.
Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape and no notable changes
are planned. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Today through Tomorrow:

Went ahead and adjusted afternoon PoPs to 15% today to account for
afternoon showers/t-storms. Similar to yesterday, hot and humid
conditions will continue across our area as hi-res guidance
continues to show the upper-level ridge over the southeast CONUS.
The heat advisory will continue across our CWA today with heat
indices around 105-110 degrees.

A few pop-up showers will be possible across our entire CWA later
this evening due to the leftover heating of our moist airmass. Quiet
conditions will prevail over our entire forecast area heading into
the overnight period as near term guidance continues to show a
1025mb sfc high over the southern Appalachians as well as ridging
back to the southwest across our CWA. This will allow for stout
ridging over our forecast area and help suppress any moisture build
up. HREF guidance is starting to show low probabilities (around 10%)
for areas of patchy dense fog tonight through early Wednesday
morning from the Hwy 84 corridor towards the Hwy 82 corridor.
Confidence is too low to mention any hazard graphics at this time.
Overnight lows will drop to the low to mid 70s areawide.

Dry conditions will prevail across our CWA tomorrow morning as the
1025mb sfc high continues to hover over the southeast CONUS. The hot
and humid conditions will result in continued heat stress through
Wednesday, with heat indices between 105-110 degrees. The Heat
Advisory will continue through Wednesday evening. Made a few
adjustments to the near-term forecast and adjusted afternoon PoPs to
15% areawide given the HRRR guidance showing isolated/scattered pop-
up showers and storms across a large portion of our forecast area
tomorrow afternoon. Expect daytime highs to peak into the mid/upper
90s.

Wednesday night through early next week:

Global guidance continues to show a shortwave south the mid-level
ridge. This shortwave will help spark a organized MCS across
Alabama. The steering flow circulating around the mid-level will
allow for this organized complex to propagate eastward and sneak
into the southeast portions of our forecast area late Wednesday
evening/early Thursday morning timeframe. The extent of this system
is still a bit uncertain at this time as it moves into a unfavorable
environment. Regardless, there are continued signals in CSU machine
learning props for isolated severe storms Wednesday into Thursday if
the environment presents more favorable conditions further east.
Because of this, the "Marginal" risk has been expanded further west
across the Pine Belt region and further north towards Noxubee MS.

Heading into the late week, global guidance does show a weak upper
low beginning to shift into our area from Florida as the upper ridge
breaks down and propagates off to the east. This will result in a
steady increase in rain chances across our CWA through the weekend
with higher chances east of I-55. Scattered showers and storms will
persist heading into early next week. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Ongoing isolated to scattered TSRA will diminish within an hour or
two of sunset. Similar activity is expected Wed afternoon. Brief
visibility and ceiling reductions are possible with wind gusts in
the 30-40 kt range possible as well. Patchy fog cannot be ruled
out around daybreak Wed morning, but confidence remains too low
to include at any specific TAF site. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail with mainly light wind. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  96  74  94 /  20  20  20  30
Meridian      73  97  73  95 /  10  20  20  40
Vicksburg     74  96  75  95 /  20  20  10  20
Hattiesburg   74  98  73  96 /  20  30  20  40
Natchez       72  94  74  94 /  20  20  10  20
Greenville    75  95  76  94 /  20  20  10  10
Greenwood     75  97  75  95 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/CR